![]() ![]() If you purchased an HGST drive at time zero, there is a 97% chance that drive would still be operational after six years (72 months).The Drive Stats for each drive model as of Mais shown below, followed by the Kaplan-Meier curve for each drive. The two 4TB drive models we selected for comparison had the most 4TB drives in operation as of March 31, 2022. That said, the application of the technique to other fields is not unusual. Kaplan-Meier curves are most often used in biological sciences to forecast life expectancy by measuring the fraction of subjects living for a certain amount of time after receiving treatment. ![]() Using these life expectancy curves we’ll compare drive models in cohorts of 4TB, 8TB, 12TB, and 14TB to see what we can find. Using the Drive Stats data we’ve collected since 2013, we have selected 10 drive models that have a sufficient number of both drives and drive days to produce Kaplan-Meier life expectancy curves we can use to easily visualize their life expectancy. For example, knowing that a washing machine has an annualized failure rate of 4% is academically interesting, but what we really want to know is, “How long can I expect the washing machine to last before I need to replace it?” In this post, we’ll look at drive failure from a different angle: life expectancy.īy looking at life expectancy, we can answer the question, “How long is the drive I am buying today expected to last?” This line of thinking matches the way we buy many things. ![]() For the last several years, we have written about drive failure, or more specifically, the annualized failure rates for the hard drives and SSDs we use for our cloud storage platform. ![]()
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